Understanding coalition building in ‘soft’ authoritarianisms: A comparative analysis of the Western Balkans and the Caucasus
FBA - Folke Bernadotte Academy - Swedish agency for peace, security and development (2025-2026)
This project analyses coalition building in autocratic regimes and their implication for regime stability. Engaging in a cross-regional comparison, the project will scrutinise coalition building patterns in Armenia, Georgia, Montenegro, and Serbia. Contrary to established scholarly understanding, the project argues that regime cohesiveness can potentially be detrimental to regime stability, whereas elite splits, commonly understood as the main threat to autocratic regimes, can have stabilising effects. The project will advance a dynamic understanding of coalition building, highlighting ‘strategic exclusion’ as an unexplored mechanism in autocratic coalition building.